Thursday, August 11, 2016

2nd Annual Fantasy Football Rankings : Quarterbacks


   Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the 2016 Fantasy Football season. This year, similar to last, I have done my research and compiled my top 10 Quarterbacks for the upcoming fantasy season. Experts this year dub the 2016 season as "The Year of the Receiver." Sure. But think about this. How does the receiver get the ball? The Quarterback. Fantasy Football analysis is not black and white. There are a multitude of ways to bend the stats and facts in a players favor, or manipulate them to outline the downfall of a certain player. Here is my take on the Quarterbacks of 2016.

1. Cam Newton - Carolina Panthers
Coming off a stellar MVP season in which he threw for 3,837 yards, 35 Touchdowns, and had his highest QBR of 99.4, Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers sits atop my rankings this year. Newton and his offensive corp will be back, with no changes to the skill positions. What makes this season even more promising is the return of stud WR Kelvin Benjamin, who caught 73 passes for 1,008 yards in his Rookie Season of 2014, and then tore his ACL prior to the 2015 season. Newton is so versatile with his ability to run that stopping him is an incredibly tall task. The three pronged offensive attack of Newtons Pass and Run game, combined with the surprisingly successful run game led by Jonathan Stewart last season proves no match for any team in the regular season. Their multi-option offense will keep the defense on their toes, allowing Super Cam to make incredible plays in the air, and on the ground. Look for this one of a kind playmaker to lead you to a Fantasy title game if you are lucky to grab him. (ESPN RANKED 1)

2. Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers
In my personal opinion, Aaron Rodgers is more exciting to watch than Cam Newton. His unpredictability and cannon for an arm allow for electrifying plays, like the Hail Mary to Richard Rodgers, seen here. Aaron threw for 3,821 yards and 31 touchdowns, without #1 target Jordy Nelson. With Nelson back, Rodgers will have a full set of weapons and be in true Rodgers MVP form. In 2014, with Nelson, Aaron threw for 4,381 yards and 38 TD's, while totaling only 5 INT's. Last season all the numbers were worse, including 8 INT's. In football you can never discount Chemistry. I like Rodgers this year getting back to MVP contention and possibly making a run for his third award. (ESPN RANKED 2)

3. Andrew Luck - Indianapolis Colts
Luck is someone I'm really excited to watch this season, after an awfully disappointing 2015 campaign. A slew of injuries caused Luck to play only 7 games last season, the first time in his career he missed games due to injury. Luck threw for 4,761 yards and 40 TD's in 2014, which is why he is back in the top three of my rankings. When healthy this man is a machine. Not only does he make plays in the air, but when needed he can slide out of the pocket and pick valuable yards up on his feet. The ability to scramble and score on the run is a vital quality in the new generation of Quarterbacks. Defensive players are faster, and hit harder, so being able to avoid that is key. Luck could even be the number one Quarterback again. All depends on how he rebounds and returns to the gridiron. (ESPN RANKED 4)

4. Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees could very well be the best quarterback in this league, however his age pegs him down on the rankings. In four of the last five season, Brees has had at least four games with 340+ yards and 3 TD's. For eight straight seasons, he has thrown for at least 4,300 yards and 33 touchdowns. So with those numbers, why is Brees not on top of this article? Well. For his tenure in New Orleans he has been criticized for not being able to play outdoors, which is entirely true. Brees plays significantly better indoors, which this season bodes well for fantasy owners. Of his last six games, five will be indoors, which will occur during fantasy football playoffs/championship season. Drew Brees is currently being drafted outside the top 7 rounds, so he's a steal in the later part of the Quarterback frenzy. (ESPN RANKED 5)

5. Russell Wilson - Seattle Seahawks
ESPN has Wilson ranked at number 3, which I clearly disagree with. Yes, Wilson is an absolute fantasy workhorse. However. Up until last season he was a top 5 fantasy quarterback, and then last year Doug Baldwin exploded. That accounts for his breakthrough of 4,000 yards, however I see this year changing. I do not see Doug Baldwin as an elite WR in this league, at least yet. He had a great second half of the season which propelled the Seahawks into the playoffs, yes. But for now I consider that a fluke. This season is the season for Wilson and Baldwin to legitimize themselves as a serious passing attack, because their team runs the ball 500 times a season. Of Seattle's 501 rushing attempts last year, Wilson accounted for 103 of them. When your quarterback is second on your team for rushing attempts, and its still plus 500, something is fishy. Yes, I said before that the ability to score on your feet is important. But it comes to a point where you need to distinguish a Quarterback from a Running back. Cam Newton runs as much, if not more than Russell Wilson. But Cam in my mind has proved himself as a QB more than Wilson has. This will cause disagreement, however this is my opinion, and my article. Prove my opinion wrong Russell Wilson. (ESPN RANKED 3)

6. Carson Palmer - Arizona Cardinals
I feel like Carson Palmer gets a bad rep since he's been a tad bit of a journeyman, going from the Bengals to the Raiders, and finally landing on his most lucrative team in terms of stats, the Arizona Cardinals. However you can't overlook his production in his three seasons with the team. Palmer played all 16 games in 2013 and 2015, and was sidelined after six games due to injury. In both of his two complete seasons, Palmer threw for 4,000+ yards and total of 59 touchdowns (24 in 2013, 35 in 2015). You have to like the receiving corp that Palmer gets to work with. Despite his age Larry Fitzgerald continues to put up great fantasy numbers, and Arizona is blessed with two up and coming wide-outs in John Brown and Michael Floyd. He may have one of the most elite set of receivers in the league, so I'm looking for Palmer to outscore his rank. Three talented receivers force the defense to spread their coverage, so unless they want to allow David Johnson (Running Back, Arizona Cardinals) to beat them on the ground, there shouldn't be any extra coverage on any three receivers, allowing for Palmer to have plenty of options. (ESPN RANKED 7)

7. Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Steelers
Those people who owned Roethlisberger in the past are now hooting and hollering about how low I placed Big Ben. I agree he is a fantasy workhorse. Last year in 12 games he basically threw for 4,000 yards, the year before he almost broke 5,000, and before that he broke 4,000. He is a monster. However to be a fantasy monster you need people to throw the ball to, besides Antonio Brown. Roethlisbergers number two target last year, Martavis Bryant is suspended a minimum of one season for violating the leagues substance abuse policy. So the Steeler's offense is full of questions, and that is why Ben is lower on my list. Sure, he could break out and have an incredible season working with what he has. On the flip, he could get injured, not play all 16 like he's done 9 of his 12 NFL seasons, and be a fantasy disappointment. I'm giving Ben the high ceiling here, and I hope he proves me wrong. (ESPN RANKED 6)

8. Tom Brady - New England Patriots
My guy. This season Tom Brady will be sidelined, serving a four game suspension for the Deflate-gate scandal. So, if Brady is only playing 12 games, why did he crack the top 10? Great question. BECAUSE HE'S TOM BRADY. No, this isn't homer bias kicking in. Tom Brady will still provide for fantasy owners. He threw for 4,770 yards and 36 TD's last year, at 38 years old. The man, plain and simple, knows how to get going. Chances are the majority of owners in your league will pass on Brady once the Quarterback rush begins. My advice? Snag Brady, and pick up Jimmy Garroppollo as the reverse handcuff. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels know how to piece together a Super Bowl contending caliber offense with whatever they are given. Draft Brady and Garroppollo together for Fantasy success.

9. Blake Bortles - Jacksonville Jaguars
The more and more I watched the Jacksonville Jaguars play, searching for some comedic relief, I became increasingly impressed with the talent of Blake Bortles. He finished ranked fifth overall in Quarterback points last year! What?!?! I attribute this success to his dynamic duo of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. These guys tore it up last year, and ESPN has dubbed Jacksonville as the most improved team during the offseason. Take the team for a joke if you want, but Bortles threw for 4,428 yards and 35 touchdowns last season, and the same people are coming back for him to throw to. #9 on the list might be low, and I'm serious when I say Bortles is a legit QB 1 this year in Fantasy. (ESPN RANKED 10)

10. Tyrod Taylor - Buffalo Bills
"What? Where's Eli? He has OBJ?" Chill. Tyrod Taylor statistically had a better season than Eli last year, and is only going to improve. Last season the Bills quarterback averaged 19.3PPG, which ranked 9th amongst all starting QB's, higher than Eli's, who many believe should take this spot. Taylor only played 14 games last season, and barely broke 3,000 passing yards. Not impressive. What is impressive is his 568 rushing yards 24 total Touchdowns, with only 6 INT's. In his first season as an NFL Starter, people finally took him seriously. No, his passing numbers were not aligned with the rest of the league. But in 14 games he provided 19.3 fantasy points per game. That's tied with Carson Palmer, and one place ahead of Big Ben, who are ranked sixth and seventh respectively on this list. I'm not saying Taylor is a stud Quarterback who will throw the ball down the field constantly. What I'm saying is he scores when it counts. If fantasy football is about winning week by week, and this guy can put numbers up week by week that will work for winning, give him a chance as QB 1. I'm hoping for big fantasy production by Tyrod Taylor in his second season as an NFL starter. (ESPN RANKED 12)

That was my take on the slew of NFL quarterbacks for the 2016 season. Yes, people will disagree with what I have said. Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning and Matt Ryan all could have made cases to get in. However after doing my research I have found the above 10 quarterbacks to be the guys you take with you to your league championships, and that's the ultimate goal in Fantasy Sports.

Thursday, June 9, 2016

NBA Finals : Why the Cavs Won Game 3

Image result for jr smith
        Less than five hours before Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavalier and Golden State Warriors, Kevin Love was ruled out of the game, and that is when the sports community wrote off the Cavs. However, some people, including myself, thought the series would take a twist with K-Love out. Love has never been praised for his defense, and the slacking offense wouldn't take much a hit without him. Richard Jefferson, the veteran stepped in to change the dynamic and provide some defense and leadership. 

Last night I saw three things the Cavs did differently that won them in the game, which they were not doing in the first two games.

1. JR Smith was hitting his shots
In games one and two, Smith was 3-9 from the field, including 2-7 from 3 point. Yesterday, Smith was 7 of 13 from the field, and piling on 5 three pointers on 10 attempts. The way you beat the Warriors is to combat their shooting spree's with your own. Portland did that and so did Oklahoma City, even though both of them lost the overall series. If the Cavs can continue their hot streak from downtown, allowing JR Smith and Kyrie Irving to light up the scoreboard with three's of their own, this series can and will become much more competitive.

2. They moved the ball more
Games One and Two features many offensive possessions where LeBron James would dribble the air out of the ball for 15 seconds and then begin to create his own offense. That created a trend where other players, like Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love would do the same, and it became a game of individuality. The lack of ball movement prompted more defensive attention on the ball handler, and that's why Kyrie, Lebron and Love had bad games, therefore resulting in the loss. HOWEVER, last night it was totally different. They looked for the open shots, found players cutting to the basket, and their ball movement opened up the court, so the 3 point shots were more high percentage. When a team can spread the floor and force the Warriors to scramble on defense that is when the victories flow in. Not allowing a double team to form on LeBron, or any ball carrier allows more high percentage shots to come in.

3. Defense was in their vocabulary
In the first two games it seemed as if the Cavaliers did not know the meaning of the word defense. Cleveland played complacently and allowed the Warriors to stomp all over them. The aggressiveness shown by the invigorated Cav's turned defense into offense, scoring 34 points off turnovers. Matthew Dellavedova played tremendously on Steph Curry, not allowing him any space, similar to what Oklahoma City did early on in the Western Conference Finals. Obviously shutting down Curry and Thompson is an increasingly hard task. However if Cleveland can continue to chip away at their production, I think a 2-0 comeback will become more and more plausible as the series progresses.

I hope Tyron Lue realizes how successful his team was last night. His starting lineup without Kevin Love was much more rounded out. If I had one piece of advice it would be this. Allow K-Love to become the 6th man. Bring him off the bench with Mozgov as a replacement for the Jefferson-Thompson 4-5 combo, and allow K-Love to spread the floor on offense with his outside range, and hopefully the shortened minutes will prompt him to be more aggressive on defense.